The Premier League’s UEFA Champions League qualification picture is looking clearer, at least in terms of how many teams are truly in the fight to qualify for the top five.
Nottingham Forest’s recent stumbles have made them apart of the top-five scrap instead of a more comfortable on-looker from third place. And stumbles from Fulham, Brighton, and Bournemouth have further narrowed the field of likely competitors for a UCL place.
Forest’s 57 points have them a point ahead of Newcastle United, and Manchester City, Chelsea, and Aston Villa join that duo in delivering five teams within three points on the table.
MORE – Full Premier League standings, 2024-25 season
Also, for big fans of Fulham and skeptics of Arsenal, here’s why we are excluding those two teams for now.
The Gunners are six points clear of third and eight ahead of Manchester City. Until they show us a totally weaker-willed side that we’ve seen the past few years, they’re above the fray.
As for Fulham, they do have a match-in-hand but seven points back of the top five is really tough. It’s true that they can affect three top-five rivals in Man City, Aston Villa, and Chelsea, but they also have to win those games.
Five teams, three spots — Let’s look at the fixture lists and project some point totals.
Nottingham Forest, 3rd place, 57 points — Will Forest make the Champions League?
April 21: Spurs v Nottingham Forest — USA — Watch live on NBC.com (3pm ET)
April 27: FA Cup semifinal vs Man City
May 1: Nottingham Forest v Brentford
May 5: Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest
May 11: Nottingham Forest v Leicester City
May 17: Possible FA Cup Final
May 18: West Ham v Nottingham Forest**
May 25: Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
**Match to be moved if Forest reach FA Cup Final
Forest will feel very good about their home fixtures, and going away to Spurs and West Ham aren’t super daunting at the moment. The toughest fixture left is likely the May 5 trip to Selhurst Park at Crystal Palace. Nuno Espirito Santo has a very good chance at keeping a place in the UCL, especially if their fixture list is eased by an FA Cup semifinal loss to Man City.
Newcastle United, 4th place, 56 points — Can Newcastle make the Champions League?
April 16: Newcastle United v Crystal Palace — USA — Watch live on NBC.com (2:30pm ET)
April 19: Aston Villa v Newcastle United — NBC — Watch live on NBC.com (12:30pm ET)
April 26: Newcastle United v Ipswich Town
May 4: Brighton v Newcastle United
May 10: Newcastle United v Chelsea*
May 18: Arsenal v Newcastle United
May 25: Newcastle United v Everton
*Match will move to May 11 if Chelsea play in UEFA Conference League on May 8.
Newcastle have three very difficult matches left, four if you include a very dangerous Palace side. But Chelsea and Palace are going to St. James’ Park and the Magpies have one more match than the rest of the field.
Manchester City, 5th place, 55 points — Will Man City qualify for the Champions League?
April 19: Everton v Man City — USA — Watch live on NBC.com
April 22: Man City v Aston Villa
April 27: FA Cup semifinal vs Nottingham Forest
May 2: Man City v Wolves
May 10: Southampton v Man City
May 17: Possible FA Cup Final
May 18: Man City v AFC Bournemouth**
May 25: Fulham v Man City
**Match to be moved if Man City reach FA Cup Final
City won’t feel great they are competing just to get into the Champions League, but they’ll love their route there. Villa is good but coming to the Etihad Stadium. There are solid teams on their list, but only the Villans are a top-five threat.
De Bruyne’s free kick gives City life v. Palace
Manchester City are back in this one thanks to Kevin De Bruyne’s spectacular free kick to reduce his side’s deficit to Crystal Palace to just one goal at the Etihad.
Chelsea fixtures, 6th place, 54 points — Will Chelsea reach the Champions League?
Thursday (April 17): Conference League quarterfinal second leg vs Legia Warsaw
April 20: Fulham v Chelsea — Stream live on Peacock
April 26: Chelsea v Everton
May 1: Possible Conference League semifinal first leg
May 4: Chelsea v Liverpool
May 8: Possible Conference League semifinal second leg
May 10: Newcastle United v Chelsea*
May 18: Chelsea v Man Utd
May 25: Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
May 28: Possible Conference League Final
*Match will move to May 11 if Chelsea play in UEFA Conference League on May 8.
The Blues haven’t looked good lately and still have four high-profile matches on the docket (three if you’re one who wants to discount wobbly Manchester United).
Aston Villa fixtures, 7th place, 54 points — Can Aston Villa return to the Champions League?
Tuesday (April 15): UEFA Champions League quarterfinal 2nd leg vs PSG
April 19: Aston Villa v Newcastle United — NBC — Watch live on NBC.com (12:30pm ET)
April 22: Man City v Aston Villa
April 26: FA Cup semifinal v Crystal Palace
April 29-30: Possible UEFA Champions League semifinal first leg
May 3: Aston Villa v Fulham
May 6-7: Possible UEFA Champions League semifinal first leg
May 10: AFC Bournemouth v Aston Villa
May 17: Possible FA Cup Final
May 18: Aston Villa v Spurs**
May 25: Man Utd v Aston Villa
May 31:Possible UEFA Champions League Final
**Match to be moved if Villa reach FA Cup Final
Villa are deep but being asked to do a lot in a short period of time. Their top-four routes involve winning the Champions League outright — an ask that requires a huge comeback against PSG on Tuesday — or winning almost all of their games including matches against Newcastle and Man City which fall within days of that emotional second leg at Villa Park. There’s a lot to ask here, but Unai Emery knows how to balance the need to compete on multiple fronts and may be Villa’s top weapon.
Predicting which Premier League teams reach the UEFA Champions League
1. Liverpool — 92 points
2. Arsenal — 77 points
3. Manchester City — 71 points
4. Newcastle United — 71 points
5. Nottingham Forest — 69 points
6. Aston Villa — 66 points
7. Chelsea — 61 points
