Will Utah make the College Football Playoff? Can BYU reach the postseason? Bowl projections

Last year, the Big 12 had nine teams qualify for the postseason.

With four new teams — Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado — joining the league as Texas and Oklahoma head to the SEC, how does the postseason outlook shape up for the conference heading into the 2024 season?

Could the Big 12 hit double-digits in terms of the number of bowl eligible-teams this season? And how will the Big 12 factor into the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff?

Here’s a look at three bowl projections from national outlets released in the past month, as well as a fourth from The Athletic that projects the field for the new 12-team playoff.

Sporting News

Big 12 bowl projections

• Guaranteed Rate Bowl: West Virginia vs. Rutgers

• Armed Forces Bowl: UCF vs. UTSA

• Liberty Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Kentucky

• Las Vegas Bowl: TCU vs. Florida

• Pop-Tarts Bowl: Arizona vs. Virginia Tech

• Alamo Bowl: Kansas State vs. USC

• Independence Bowl: Iowa State vs. Washington State

• Sun Bowl: Colorado vs. NC State

• Texas Bowl: Kansas vs. Missouri

• First Responder Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Navy

• College Football Playoff quarterfinals, Fiesta Bowl: No. 3 Utah vs. No. 6 Notre Dame

Bill Bender has 11 of the Big 12′s 16 teams making the postseason in this scenario, though BYU isn’t among them. Three of the league’s newcomers — Utah, Arizona and Colorado — all are projected to play in the bowl season.

12-team playoff predictions

1. Georgia

2. Ohio State

3. Utah

4. Florida State

5. Texas

6. Notre Dame

7. Oregon

8. Alabama

9. Clemson

10. Ole Miss

11. Michigan

12. Memphis

Bender has Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon and Alabama winning first-round playoff matchups, Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Notre Dame winning in the quarterfinal round, then Georgia and Ohio State moving on to the championship game.

Bender explains Utah’s playoff road when discussing the quarterfinal matchups.

“Georgia, Ohio State, Utah and Florida State earn first-round byes by virtue of winning their respective Power 4 conferences. The Bulldogs get a second matchup with the Crimson Tide, and the Buckeyes and Ducks could meet for a third time in this situation. There would be more pressure on Florida State and Utah — the ACC and Big 12 champions — against at-large teams, especially if they are from the SEC and Big Ten,” Bender wrote.

Athlon Sports

Big 12 bowl projections

• Boca Raton Bowl: UCF vs. Appalachian State

• Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Minnesota

• Armed Forces Bowl: Iowa State vs. UTSA

• Liberty Bowl: West Virginia vs. Auburn

• Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona vs. Texas A&M

• Pop-Tarts Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Clemson

• Alamo Bowl: Kansas State vs. USC

• Sun Bowl: Colorado vs. North Carolina

• Texas Bowl: Kansas vs. Oklahoma

• First Responder Bowl: TCU vs. Tulane

• College Football Playoff quarterfinals, Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Utah vs. No. 5 Oregon

Steve Lassan has 11 Big 12 teams qualifying for the postseason in his projections, though again it doesn’t include BYU. Like 247 Sports, Athlon also has three newcomers — again Utah, Arizona and Colorado — reaching the postseason.

12-team playoff predictions

1. Georgia

2. Ohio State

3. Florida State

4. Utah

5. Oregon

6. Texas

7. Ole Miss

8. Alabama

9. Michigan

10. Penn State

11. Notre Dame

12. Liberty

Lassan has Oregon, Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama winning first-round playoff matchups, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas winning in the quarterfinal round, then Georgia and Ohio State moving on to the championship game.

247 Sports

Big 12 bowl projections

• Armed Forces Bowl: West Virginia vs. Air Force

• First Responder Bowl: UCF vs. North Carolina

• Boca Raton Bowl: BYU vs. Appalachian State

• Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona vs. Texas A&M

• Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Rutgers

• Liberty Bowl: Houston vs. Kentucky

• Sun Bowl: TCU vs. Louisville

• Pop-Tarts Bowl: Utah vs. Clemson

• Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. USC

• Texas Bowl: Kansas vs. Auburn

• College Football Playoff quarterfinals, Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Kansas State vs. No. 5 Oregon

Brad Crawford has the Big 12 qualifying 11 teams for the postseason in this projection. Unlike the previous two, newcomer Colorado isn’t projected for a bowl spot.

Instead, this is the only prediction where BYU is projected to make the postseason, with the Cougars locked into a matchup with Appalachian State.

BYU has played in the Boca Raton Bowl once before, beating now fellow Big 12 member UCF 49-23 in 2020 during Zach Wilson’s final game as a Cougar.

Crawford was the only writer used for this article who didn’t predict Utah would fill the Big 12 champion’s spot in the playoff.

Here’s his reasoning behind Utah’s bowl matchup: “The Utes and Tigers have never met on the gridiron, so needless to say this would be one of bowl season’s most-anticipated matchups outside of the College Football Playoff. It would also mean organizers in Orlando lobbied for both selections, high-end finishers in the Big 12 and ACC not quite good enough to be voted in the playoff. Utah is one of the trendy picks to win the Big 12, but few are taking Clemson to unseat Florida State at the top of the ACC.”

12-team playoff predictions

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia

3. Florida State

4. Kansas State

5. Oregon

6. Texas

7. Ole Miss

8. Penn State

9. Alabama

10. Miami

11. Notre Dame

12. Liberty

Crawford further explored the race for the expanded CFP in an article released Sunday, naming Utah one of the “teams to watch” even though he doesn’t have the Utes making the playoff field.

“Think Kyle Whittingham and the Utes are ready for life in the Big 12? Utah’s built for…