UFC 307 predictions

It’s that time of year again, folks. UFC is back in Salt Lake City for UFC 307 and yet another Alex Pereira light heavyweight title defense is on tap.

Saturday’s high-elevation MMA showcase looked like the odd pay-per-view out on the UFC schedule a few months ago. Big fights and logical placements appeared to preclude UFC 307 from other champions’ availabilities and the timing didn’t align for the more flexible main event stars. Of course, that was with the assumption that Brazil’s Pereira couldn’t possibly save the day in a short period again.

Wrong. That’s all “Poatan” has done in 2024.

Pereira’s first two defenses, knockouts of Jamahal Hill and Jiri Pereira, came together with shorter camps than typically seen for a champion. Pereira, however, has proven to be no regular titleholder, and he’ll attempt to continue showcasing that with a knockout of Khalil Rountree Jr. in UFC 307’s main event.

The Salt Lake City faithful will also be treated to another title fight as the co-main features the first defense for women’s bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington. “Rocky’s” Rocky story culminated with gold in January, 10 years after her appearance on The Ultimate Fighter 18. That win made her one of three fighters in history to achieve championship status after spending a decade in the octagon.

Pennington’s opponent is the former champion Julianna Peña, who also entered UFC through The Ultimate Fighter 18, which she actually won. After a 798-day layoff, “The Venezuelan Vixen” is back.

Those are just the top two bouts closing out the night. Let’s look more in-depth at the title tilts along with the rest of the main card and make some picks, shall we?

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Alex Pereira (11-2) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-5, 1 NC)

For his third light heavyweight title defense, the champion Pereira, 37, is justifiably favored as the -450 favorite, the second largest on the card.

Let’s just say it now: Both of the title fights at UFC 307 feature challengers who should not be next in line. If meritocracy has to die to have some fun, then so be it, says the UFC. Enter the No. 7-ranked contender and “GLORY Kickboxing Killer” Rountree.

Rountree, 34, is undeniably on the best stretch of his 10-year pro career, riding a five-fight win streak. Of those five, Rountree has finished four of his opponents with strikes, including one-time title challenger Anthony Smith in his most recent win this past December.

I mentioned the fun little “GLORY Killer” nickname for Rountree, stemming from when he bested former kickboxing standouts Dustin Jacoby and Gokhan Saki, the latter of which was a stunning 2018 upset. As a +340 underdog, Rountree hopes to replicate that same epic performance against another former GLORY champion with his vicious kicks and elbows.

That won’t be anything new for Pereira. The champ has seen it all in the striking department, with his largest hurdles coming against his longtime rival, former middleweight king Israel Adesanya. Other than his loss to Adesanya, Pereira has struggled minimally in kickboxing-themed MMA affairs. It would be wise for Rountree to try and exploit the weaker area of Pereira’s game — the champ’s grappling — but he’s already stated in interviews that he won’t go down that route. Whether or not that’s all just mind games, Pereira has continually improved his takedown defense and overall ground acumen to the point where Rountree won’t be much of a threat there.

But Pereira can be hit, and with power like Rountree’s, that could be trouble. It’s just a matter of finding his shot first, which is the problem. Pereira’s timing and counters are virtually unmatched in the heavier weight classes, and oh, he has one of the greatest equalizers in MMA history with that nuclear left hook, if not the greatest. The man can hurt people anywhere on the feet and he’ll add to his highlight reel here, especially if Rountree doesn’t even mix in a threat of wrestling.

It could be something crazy like Thiago Santos vs. Jimi Manuwa while it lasts, but ultimately, we’ll hear Bruce Buffer announce “and still.”

Pick: Pereira

Raquel Pennington (16-8) vs. Julianna Peña (11-5)

The purist in me struggles so mightily looking at these title fights.

Don’t be fooled. Peña’s return two days shy of an 800-day absence comes after one of the most lopsided title losses in MMA history with her Amanda Nunes rematch. Injuries extended her time away and axed what was supposed to be a Nunes trilogy in June 2023. For her sake and ours, that was for the best.

Nonetheless, Peña is back in the title scene to try to dethrone Pennington and join the select few female fighters to become two-time UFC champions.

What Pennington lacks in finishing ability, she makes up for technically with her tight boxing and underrated clinch work. It’s not flashy, but it’s effective and gets the job done, whereas Peña is wild, chaotic, and the exact opposite in the standup department. Nunes capitalized on the latter fact with three knockdowns in the Peña rematch.

Peña’s X-factor against everyone is her tenacity, aggression, and relentless pursuit of takedowns. But another area that Pennington is underrated in is her grappling defense. She may give up takedowns — she’s acquiesced nine to her opponents on this current six-fight win streak — but she knows how to avoid being held down or put in compromising positions. In all but two of those fights, Pennington beat out her opponents in control time, and in one of the two that she didn’t, the end result was a guillotine submission win over Macy Chiasson.

As durable and gritty as they come, Pennington has only been finished twice in her career. Peña will hope to grind out the champion and reclaim her title if a finish doesn’t materialize. That will make the fight a bit of a close slog coming down to whoever is more effective with their damage, and Pennington should edge that out for her first title defense.

Pick: Pennington

Jose Aldo (32-8) vs. Mario Bautista (14-2)

Jose Aldo doesn’t make sense and I absolutely love it.

The legendary former featherweight champion returned to MMA in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in May. Against Jonathan Martinez at UFC 301, the 38-year-old Aldo performed as brilliantly as fans all remembered he could.

Sticking with the bantamweight division, Aldo was sharp, fast, and brutal in his execution of Martinez. Aldo’s bizarre inability to age should probably be studied by science, and Mario Bautista will have to find a way to overcome the Brazilian’s incredible counter speed and all-time great takedown defense.

If any rising prospect at 135 pounds can crack Aldo right now, it’s Bautista, who’s the slight favorite at -140 to Aldo’s +115. Bautista, 31, has been on a tear, winning six straight with submissions mixed between decisions.

This matchup is another case of vastly superior experience and veteran savvy making all the difference. For the most part, expect it to look like Aldo vs. Martinez minus the near finish at the end. Another “King of Rio” dissection is incoming.

Pick: Aldo

Ketlen Vieira (14-3) vs. Kayla Harrison (17-1)

Kayla Harrison should be challenging Pennington for the title and Pena should be returning against Ketlen Vieira. It all makes too much sense, but we’re here instead.

Harrison, 34, delivered perhaps more than expected in her highly-anticipated promotional debut at UFC 300 in April. The two-time Olympic gold medalist judoka dominated former UFC bantamweight champion Holly Holm from pillar to post before securing a second-round rear-naked choke. It couldn’t have gone much better for the former PFL champion.

Vieira, 33, provides Harrison with the challenge of possessing likely the second-best judo skills behind only herself in the division. A black belt in that respect, Vieira doesn’t show off her grappling prowess as often as Harrison, but it’s usually effective when she does.

Harrison’s striking has continually improved fight by fight and we saw that against Holm. Vieira has some crafty setups and has been more patient in letting combinations materialize since her knockout loss to Irene Aldana in 2019 — a fight she was winning until the final blow. Vieira’s path to success will be to use her judo defensively and negate Harrison’s game so they can trade strikes.

That’s easier said than done though, especially against a judoka of Harrison’s caliber. As talented as Vieira is, there are levels to this game, and that’s why Harrison is the largest betting favorite at UFC 307 at -1100 to Vieira’s +700.

Pick: Harrison

Roman Dolidze (13-3) vs. Kevin Holland (26-11, 1 NC)

This fight is weird. After Kevin Holland lost his original opponent, Chris Curtis, Roman Dolidze stepped up to save the day just as he did against the aforementioned Smith at UFC 303 in June.

Stylistically, this should be a fairly comfortable Dolidze victory thanks to his superior grappling strengths, however his last three performances, in particular, have left plenty to be desired.

Holland is a viable submission threat and dangerous from the bottom with strikes, as demonstrated by his Ronaldo Souza win in 2020, but he’ll be outsized in this one as Dolidze drops back down from his 205-pound side quest. Holland’s activity and striking are surely what puts him as the favorite in the oddsmakers’ minds at -145 here. Dolidze is a decent gamble at +120, but he’s hard to trust. It’s a close fight, but Dolidze has never been finished and that’s what Holland will need.

Pick: Dolidze

Preliminary Notes

The entire prelim portion of UFC 307 isn’t too shabby. The final two fights, Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley and Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo, are the most intriguing. We have an impending retirement for a historic former two-time champion as well, as Carla Esparza returns for one more walk after becoming a mother to take on her fellow The Ultimate Fighter 20 alum Tecia Pennington. It’s fun that Pennington and her wife Raquel get to compete on the same night. Violence can also even be expected in the veteran matchup of Court McGee vs. Tim Means. Cheers to that, everyone.

Quick Picks:

• Stephen Thompson (+175) def. Joaquin Buckley (-210)

• Marina Rodriguez (+155) def. Iasmin Lucindo (-190)

• Cesar Almeida (-400) def. Ihor Potieria (+310)

• Ryan Spann (-250) def. Ovince Saint Preux (+200)

• Carla…