The betting markets have tabbed Scottie Scheffler as the favorite to lift his first claret jug this Sunday at Royal Troon. It’s a familiar position for Scheffler, a six-time winner this year who has entered every major championship as the favorite.
But should he really be the favorite entering this Open Championship?
Those who say yes will point to the numbers, including the fact that Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach and greens in regulation while ranking second in total driving and proximity to the hole – all solid indicators for success at this week’s stop on the Open rota.
But those who side with the nos will argue that it’s not always simply what the numbers say. We haven’t seen Scheffler since the Travelers Championship (he won that one, too, by the way) and that last time we saw him at a major he was tying for 41st at Pinehurst No. 2 – and he was somewhat outspoken about not liking the luck element of the Donald Ross gem; that doesn’t go away at Troon, where pot bunkers, gorse and other fun stuff lurk, and where we could see some weather (30-35 mph gusts are already forecasted for Thursday’s opening round).
And speaking of the U.S. Open, Rory McIlroy is coming off yet another heartbreaker, though he bounced back quickly with a T-4 at the Genesis Scottish Open, and McIlroy’s driving ability is always going to be an advantage at a course like Troon, where guys such as Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Åberg all set up well and have at least some decent momentum.
A couple bits of history that do go in Scheffler’s favor: Royal Troon’s list of champions (six of the past seven winners here have been American) and low-scoring propensity (each of its last four championships have produced a winning score of double-digits under par, including Henrik Stenson’s 20-under performance in 2016; Scheffler leads the Tour in birdie average by over a half-birdie per round).
So, with all that said, is Scheffler my favorite this week?
Let’s find out – but only after I rank every players in the 158-man field, plus provide analysis on the top 50 of this ranking:
Nos. 141-158
158. Todd Hamilton
157. John Daly
156. Jack McDonald
155. Elvis Smylie
154. Denwit Boriboonsub
153. Darren Clarke
152. Jasper Stubbs (a)
151. Charlie Lindh
150. Aguri Iwasaki
149. Altin van der Merwe (a)
148. Justin Leonard
147. Sam Hutsby
146. Jaime Montojo (a)
145. Jeung-Hun Wang
144. Luis Masaveu (a)
143. Liam Nolan (a)
142. Darren Fichardt
141. Alex Cejka
Nos. 131-140
140. Matthew Dodd-Berry (a)
139. Michael Hendry
138. Masahiro Kawamura
137. Kazuma Kobori
136. Ryosuke Kinoshita
135. Gun-Taek Koh
134. Phil Mickelson
133. Sam Horsfield
132. Padraig Harrington
131. Andy Ogletree
Nos. 121-130
130. Tommy Morrison (a)
129. Mason Andersen
128. Marcel Siem
127. Minkyu Kim
126. Vincent Norrman
125. Daniel Hillier
124. Dominic Clemons (a)
123. Ernie Els
122. Jacob Skov Olesen (a)
121. Jorge Campillo
Nos. 111-120
120. Alexander Bjork
119. Daniel Brown
118. Santiago de la Fuente (a)
117. Ryan Van Velzen
116. Henrik Stenson
115. Tiger Woods
114. Younghan Song
113. Nacho Elvira
112. Gary Woodland
111. Stewart Cink
Nos. 101-110
110. Dan Bradbury
109. Matthew Southgate
108. Angel Hidalgo
107. John Catlin
106. Sean Crocker
105. Yannik Paul
104. Thorbjorn Olesen
103. Jesper Svensson
102. Matt Wallace
101. Yuto Katsuragawa
Nos. 91-100
100. Rikuya Hoshino
99. Joost Luiten
98. Nick Taylor
97. Joe Dean
96. Shubhankar Sharma
95. Francesco Molinari
94. Calum Scott (a)
93. Zach Johnson
92. Romain Langasque
91. Rickie Fowler
Nos. 81-90
90. Alex Noren
89. Mackenzie Hughes
88. Richard Mansell
87. Brendon Todd
86. Thriston Lawrence
85. Ben Griffin
84. C.T. Pan
83. Adam Schenk
82. Eric Cole
81. Sami Valimaki
Nos. 71-80
80. Chris Kirk
79. Abraham Ancer
78. Justin Rose
77. Guido Migliozzi
76. Denny McCarthy
75. Dustin Johnson
74. Ryo Hisatsune
73. Ryan Fox
72. Gordon Sargent (a)
71. David Puig
Nos. 61-70
70. Louis Oosthuizen
69. Matteo Manassero
68. Keita Nakajima
67. Nicolai Hojgaard
66. Sebastian Soderberg
65. Emiliano Grillo
64. Taylor Moore
63. Matthew Jordan
62. Ewen Ferguson
61. Adrian Meronk
Nos. 51-60
60. Adam Hadwin
59. Rasmus Hojgaard
58. Keegan Bradley
57. J.T. Poston
56. Jordan Smith
55. Max Homa
54. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
53. Stephan Jaeger
52. Tom Hoge
51. Laurie Canter
Nos. 41-50
50. Billy Horschel
49. Harris English
48. Jason Day
47. Maverick McNealy
46. Austin Eckroat
45. Matthieu Pavon
44. Cameron Smith
43. Lucas Glover
42. Will Zalatoris
41. Dean Burmester
Horschel missed the Scottish cut, his first MC since Valero, as his ball-striking has started to fade slightly. But he’s had a bit of success on links (T-21 at St. Andrews) and is one of the more accurate drivers on Tour. … No top-10s since Genesis and not a great Open track record, but English is nearly top 20 in total driving and closed in 65 to finish T-34 in Scotland. … Day has been so-so of late, mostly because of approach play, though T-2 last year at Royal Liverpool and it’s always nice to drive and putt it well at these Opens. … McNealy’s Deere missed cut halted some good momentum that included a T-7 in Canada. But he’s top 40 in total driving, hits it low off the tee and is a good lag putter. … Maybe one of those guys who should be ranked higher, Eckroat is top 20 in total driving and strokes gained approach. He did…
