Now things get serious.
Olympic men’s basketball has moved from Lille in the north of France to the spotlight of Paris and, more importantly, we have moved on to the knockout round — lose and go home. Win and advance to play for medals.
The USA has been dominant through the group stage, going 3-0 and winning by an average of 21.4 points a game while never truly feeling threatened. LeBron James has looked like the tournament MVP, the American defenders have been on a string, and Anthony Edwards (16.7 points per game) and Kevin Durant (16) lead an overwhelming offense. The Americans are having fun and putting on a show.
Who is the biggest threat to keep the USA from stepping to the top of the podium and winning gold?
Honestly, it’s the USA itself — if they come out flat or don’t take an opponent seriously, they could beat themselves in the one-and-done portion of the tournament. What teams could benefit? Let’s rank the seven remaining on chances they can beat the USA in one game.
1. Germany
If LeBron isn’t the Olympics MVP so far, it’s Dennis Schroder — 19.7 points and 9 assists a game, shooting 40.9% from 3. Pair him with Orlando’s rising star Franz Wagner (21.7 points and 5 rebounds a game) and you have a talented core of a deep team that knows how to play together — remember Germany won the FIBA World Cup last summer. Germany has done it with defense, allowing 73.7 points a game — 8.6 per game fewer than any other team (part of that is pace; Germany is deliberate, whereas the USA prefers to play up-tempo, which means more shots for the opponent, too).
Germany’s other advantage is that it plays Greece in the first knockout-round game. While that means facing Giannis Antetokounmpo (leading the Olympics at 27 points a game), the team around the Greek Freak has struggled and the Greeks snuck into the knockout round with a 1-2 record. The Germans should move on to the final four in a strong position. They wouldn’t see the USA until the gold medal game, where they would have a puncher’s chance in one game.
2. Canada
We knew going into the Olympics that Canada had the deepest roster outside of the United States and it has shown — they went 3-0 through the “group of death.” While its margin of victory (6.7 points a game) is not overwhelming, the fact that they did it beating Australia, Greece and Spain is a good sign. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been fantastic —19 points, 4 assists and 4 rebounds a game — and has yet to play his best game, while RJ Barrett is a bucket at 21 points a night. Plus, Canada rolls out top defenders in SGA, Lu Dort and Dillon Brooks.
Canada struggled with the USA’s size in an exhibition matchup, but in one game for the gold, they would have a chance if they got hot from 3. Getting there will be the hard part, Canada faces a quality French team with real size in the most interesting quarterfinal matchup.
3. Serbia
Serbia could be the USA’s semi-final opponent and has Nikola Jokic in the paint, averaging 18.7 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists a game on 64.5% shooting. He’s still the best player on the planet and can win a game against anyone. Bogdan Bogdanovic has also put up 19 points a game for the Serbs. Still, it’s hard to call a team the USA beat by 26 in the Olympic group play opener a threat (the USA also beat Serbia by 26 in an exhibition). Serbia can hang with the USA when Jokic is on the court, but they don’t have the depth to stay close in the minutes he sits.
4. France
The host country looked much better on paper than they have on the court — they went 2-1 but barely beat Japan (and needed a four-point play late to get that). Victor Wembanyama has been everything France could have hoped for, averaging 17 points, 10.7 rebounds, and a couple of blocks a game, plus shooting 43.8% from 3 — all at age 20 in his first Olympics. He is an alien. While Wemby and Rudy Gobert form a formidable front line, the French backcourt is a weakness, one Canada probably exploits in the first quarterfinal matchup and one the USA certainly would if the teams met for the gold.
5. Australia
Another team that looked more of a threat on paper than they have proven to be in person. Josh Giddey is making Bulls fans smile with his play — 15 points, 8.7 rebounds and 6.7 assists a game and shooing 42.9% from 3 — and they have talent with him in Dyson Daniels, Josh Green, Jock Landale and Dante Exum, but it all just has not meshed on the court. The USA led their exhibition game against Australia by 24 before taking their foot off the gas and learning a lesson in a 98-92 win. The Americans are just too deep to be threatened by the Boomers if they meet in the second round (Australia faces Serbia).
6. Greece
The only reason Greece isn’t last is it has Giannis Antetokounmpo — 27 points a game shooting 68.9% in the group phase, plus 7.7 rebounds a night. He can single-handedly win a game — and he’s going to have to if Greece is even going to advance past Germany in the first knockout game. The rest of the Greek squad has not played up to the bar Antetokounmpo sets.
7. Brazil
The Brazilians get the first shot at the USA in the quarterfinals, and they are led by Vitor Benite at 14.3 points a game. Brazil’s only hope is to rain 3s on the Americans, the South American squad is shooting 45.3% from 3 in the Olympics, the highest percentage of any team. Brazil also is strong on the offensive glass. As we have seen in the NCAA Tournament, one hot game with a lot of 3s can lead to an upset, but that seems a tall…
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