NBA Draft withdrawals: Florida is the big winner, while Duke is on the losing end

Condolences to any NBA franchise hoping to unearth an overlooked gem late in next month’s NBA Draft.

This year’s second round appears to be historically barren as a result of the skyrocketing NIL market across college basketball.

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In the pre-NIL era, college basketball’s top underclassmen routinely entered the NBA Draft even if they were projected to slip to the second round or go unselected. They earned more money chasing an NBA two-way contract or an overseas payday than they could returning to a college model where the only payouts came under the table.

The calculus began to change in 2021 when a series of court rulings forced the NCAA to allow athletes to benefit financially from their name, image, and likeness without fear of penalty. Now underclassmen who are fringe NBA prospects are returning to college in record numbers because they can earn as much as $3 to $4 million per year playing for deep-pocketed college programs.

Texas Tech’s JT Toppin, Florida’s Thomas Haugh, UConn’s Alex Karaban, Duke’s Isaiah Evans and Purdue’s Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn were among the prominent college stars who did not even test the waters this spring. Only 106 players , the league announced last month. That’s the lowest number of early entrants since 2015, down from

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Many of those 106 early-entry candidates did not remain in the NBA draft — even some who had a chance to be selected as high as in the 20-45 range. Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg pulled out on the eve of Wednesday’s 11:59 p.m. ET deadline. and . Days earlier, Boogie Fland and Darrion Williams did the same.

Others truly took their decisions down to the wire. On Wednesday afternoon, promising Auburn point guard Tahaad Pettiford revealed he’d return to school, as did Kentucky’s Otega Oweh and San Diego State’s Miles Byrd. Arkansas’ Adou Thiero, reigning Big East player of the year RJ Luis and ex-Florida State star Jamir Watkins chose to stay in the draft.

The flood of returning talent to college basketball reflects how much money top-tier programs are willing to spend to try to build the best possible rosters. The Field of 68’s Jeff Goodman that as many as 15 teams will have $10 million rosters next season. Those in the NIL space who have spoken to Yahoo Sports say that it will take up to $6-8 million just to be competitive in a power conference.

For as long as that kind of money remains available, the sport of college basketball will always be a big winner at the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline. Fringe NBA prospects are staying in college longer than they have in at least a decade or two, maybe longer.

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Which stay-or-go decisions were the most impactful this season? Below is a long list of college programs who got stronger and a few programs who lost key players they may struggle to replace.

WINNERS

1. FLORIDA

Don’t count out Florida as a potential repeat national champion. The Gators project as no worse than a preseason top-five team next fall thanks to a wildly successful offseason so far.

It starts in the frontcourt where Florida returns all four players who were part of the rotation during last season’s NCAA tournament. In late April, versatile forward Thomas Haugh opted to bypass the NBA Draft and return to school. He’ll see more playing time at small forward next season with frontcourt stalwarts Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu withdrawing from the draft over the past week and reserve center Micah Handlogten also coming back.

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All four of last season’s top perimeter players are moving on, but Florida went on a shopping spree via the transfer portal to help replace some of that lost firepower. Princeton transfer Xaivian Lee averaged 16.9 points and 5.5 assists last season. Arkansas transfer Boogie Fland is a former five-star recruit who might have gone in the second round of this year’s NBA Draft had he not pulled his name out last week.

2. HOUSTON

Houston received unexpected good news on Tuesday when point guard Milos Uzan announced that he was withdrawing from the NBA Draft and returning for his senior year. The potential preseason No. 1 Cougars had been bracing for Uzan’s departure, adding talented freshman Kingston Flemings and proven veteran Pop Isaacs via the transfer portal.

While Isaacs ultimately chose to transfer to Texas A&M once Uzan decided to return, that’s a tradeoff Houston should welcome. Uzan averaged 11.4 points and 4.3 assists in his first year in Kelvin Sampson’s system, helping lead the Cougars within two points of a national title. He should be even better next season, surrounded by returning standouts Emanuel Sharp and Joseph Tugler, as well as one of the nation’s best freshman classes.

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“One of the reasons why Baylor was so good the year they won the national championship, they had a lot of transfers who stayed and came back their second year,” Houston coach Kelvin Sampson said Tuesday. “The second year is an opportunity to take a big step because June, July and August will be different for a guy in his second year versus a guy in his first year.”

3. MICHIGAN

The most coveted player in Michigan’s transfer portal haul is officially on his…