It’s been a successful two seasons for coach [autotag]Brian Kelly[/autotag] in Baton Rouge, by all metrics.
He’s 20-7 overall and has an SEC West title under his belt while also producing a Heisman Trophy winner in [autotag]Jayden Daniels[/autotag]. But the Tigers are still searching for their first trip to the College Football Playoff entering Kelly’s third season in 2024, and they’ll hope that’s set to change.
It’s no secret that LSU has a lot of production to replace, but it will hope some of the offensive losses are mitigated by a defense that is expected to be improved under new coordinator [autotag]Blake Baker[/autotag].
ESPN’s Heather Dinich broke down the 30 teams with the best path to the CFP, and LSU ranked No. 14 among those squads.
Dinich’s take: LSU’s schedule is a double-edged sword because it’s loaded with chances to impress the selection committee against elite competition, but those games could also add up to three or more losses. Nobody — including the committee — knows yet how conference realignment will impact how the group views multiple losses against more challenging schedules. LSU looks like a preseason bubble team, but can move up significantly by the first ranking if it can survive an October that includes Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Alabama.
Toughest test:Â Oct. 26 at Texas A&M. It’s the second of back-to-back road matchups in late October, at an unforgiving venue, and the toughest opponent the Tigers will face in a true away game. It’s also the last game they’ll play before the selection committee announces its first ranking of the season.
What the committee will like:Â A 2-0 record vs. the Big Ten. That’s right, the L.A. schools are now in the Big Ten, and LSU has a chance to beat both USC and UCLA in September. LSU opens the season against USC in the Vegas Kickoff Classic and hosts UCLA on Sept. 21. The nonconference matchups are just a snippet of a grueling schedule that also includes Oklahoma and a trip to the Swamp. If LSU doesn’t win the SEC, a 2-0 record against the Big Ten could help sway the committee to reward the Tigers with an at-large bid over a team that didn’t play as difficult of a nonconference schedule.
What the committee won’t like:Â No statement road wins. Each committee member has a statistical sheet on every team, and it includes records at neutral sites and away games. If LSU doesn’t beat USC in Las Vegas, its only other trips are to South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Florida. They should all be respectable opponents, but how many will be CFP top-25 teams come Selection Day? ESPN’s FPI gives Texas A&M a 52.9% chance to beat LSU. That’s a coin toss but it could be the Tigers’ best opportunity to impress the committee with a true road win.
While LSU doesn’t really have the opportunity to make a statement on the road, given the way the schedule looks at the moment, it’s still a tough slate that features two non-conference matchups against Big Ten opponents.
The Tigers have questions that need answering this fall, but with the expanded playoff, you can’t count them out of the mix.
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This article originally appeared on LSU Wire: Is LSU poised to make a College Football Playoff run in 2024?
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