The removal of the BCS system and the introduction of the four-team College Football Playoff is one of the best things to ever happen to the sport.
Now, after 10 years with the four-team format, the 2024 season will be the first year with a 12-team field. One of the few downsides to the old Playoff format was that there wasn’t a ton of variety in the team qualifying. For example, the Alabama Crimson Tide qualified for the Playoff in eight of the seasons and played for six national titles during that span.
Fortunately, the 12-team field should open a new door of opportunity for a handful of programs. Even blue-blood programs like the Texas Longhorns struggled to qualify for the four-team Playoff with just one appearance.
With the expanded Playoff field, there are 30 teams with over a 10% chance of making the CFP according to ESPN’s analytics. The Longhorns have the third-highest chance to make the playoffs this year with a 67.8% chance per ESPN’s FPI. Texas was also given an 11.4% chance of winning the national title
ESPN and Heather Dinich broke down all of the factors that will affect the Longhorns’ playoff chances (subscription required) in 2024 saying,
“Texas will make the CFP for a second straight season — this time as a member of the SEC — but the Longhorns should be a notch above Oregon heading into the season. Texas is No. 26 in the FBS in returning offensive production (73%), according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The Longhorns might have the best quarterback room in the country with starter Quinn Ewers returning and Arch Manning waiting for his turn. They’ll also have a veteran offensive line paving the way, and the coaching staff made good use of the transfer portal this past offseason.”
Dinich cites the Longhorns showdown with the Georgia Bulldogs in mid-October as their toughest test of the year saying, “ESPN’s FPI projects Texas will win every game except this one. It’s basically a coin flip, though, as Georgia has a 52.5% chance to win. This is also the second straight week of high emotions and competition, as Texas faces rival Oklahoma on Oct. 12.” But even if the Longhorns drop a game, maybe two, they will still be in the midst of the Playoff hunt.
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This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: ESPN projects 30 teams that could make the first 12-team CFP field
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