As Brian Kelly enters his third season at the helm in Baton Rouge, LSU faces quite a few questions.
The Tigers have a lot to replace, but at the same time, there’s hope that this team can make a run with some changes on the defensive side of the ball and the expanded College Football Playoff.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly is generally optimistic about the Tigers, who he listed among the conference title contenders in his SEC season preview. With that being said, Connelly wrote that it’s hard to gauge the program’s trajectory despite Kelly’s first two seasons being successful on paper.
“In two years with Brian Kelly, LSU has won 20 games, made an SEC championship-game appearance, added another Heisman to the trophy case (Jayden Daniels), beaten Alabama, gone 2-0 against Florida and won a bowl by 56 points,” Connelly wrote. “Considering the Tigers were 11-12 in the two seasons before Kelly’s arrival, that’s a pretty remarkable set of achievements.
“It’s strangely difficult to figure out where the Tigers program is headed, though. It isn’t really making up ground on Georgia, Texas enters the conference in better shape, and upstarts Ole Miss and Missouri have more buzz (for whatever that’s actually worth). All of LSU’s improvement has come on offense, too: The defense slumped to 52nd in SP+ last season even with one of the most disruptive players in the country (Harold Perkins Jr.). Special teams has been an ongoing issue, and now the offense has to replace Daniels, two first-round receivers and offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock.”
As Connelly mentions, LSU has a lot of new faces set to contribute on offense as well as a new play-caller with quarterbacks coach Joe Sloan taking over for Denbrock, who left to take the same role at Notre Dame. Still, he does think Sloan has quite a few pieces to work with this fall.
“The Tigers were second in offensive SP+ thanks to Daniels’ incredible senior-year breakthrough,” Connelly said. “Now it appears it’s Garrett Nussmeier’s turn behind center. He did well against Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl, but he’s a completely different quarterback — zero scrambles in 78 dropbacks last season, one goal-line rushing attempt — and he’ll have a completely different skill corps. Veteran receivers Kyren Lacy and Chris Hilton Jr. combined explosiveness (18.2 yards per catch between them) with drops issues (10.4% drop rate) last year; they’ll likely lead the way along with tight end Mason Taylor and transfers CJ Daniels (Liberty) and Zavion Thomas (Mississippi State). Among 115 players with at least 80 targets, Daniels ranked first in yards per route (4.0). Former LSU receiver Malik Nabers was the only other player above 3.7.
“Kelly made a logical decision in promoting quarterbacks coach Joe Sloan to coordinator after Denbrock’s departure for Notre Dame. His running back corps is a mix of decent veterans (Josh Williams, John Emery Jr.) and intriguing youngsters (sophomore Kaleb Jackson, freshman Caden Durham), and his line features four returning starters, including two potential All-SEC tackles (Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr.).”
Connelly’s bigger concern is the defense, which he thinks will need to take a significant step forward given at least some slight projected regression on the offensive side of the ball.
“This will be a good offense, but it has almost no choice but to regress a bit,” he said. “The defense will have to improve to match the regression. Kelly made ultra-aggressive former Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker the highest-paid assistant in the country; Baker inherits talent, athleticism and a unit that ranked 106th in success rate and 109th in points allowed per drive. He should know what to do with havoc-friendly linebackers Perkins, Greg Penn III and Bradyn Swinson, but success on the line and in the secondary could depend on transfers. Kelly added tackles Gio Paez (Wisconsin) and Jay’Viar Suggs (Grand Valley State!) up front and safety Jardin Gilbert (Texas A&M) and corner Jyaire Brown (Ohio State) in the back.”
Luckily, that unit does have a potentially elite player in Harold Perkins Jr., who Connelly said was his favorite player on the LSU roster.
“It’s a common line that Perkins regressed as a sophomore,” Connelly said of criticisms of Perkins’ 2023 campaign. “Here’s what “regression” looks like: 15 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, 8 run stops, 3 forced fumbles and a 2.8% individual havoc rate. That was indeed worse than the 4.1% havoc rate he produced as a freshman, but it was still better than just about anyone else’s. His ceiling remains stratospheric. Baker has talked about playing him on the inside, and his havoc rate in 2022 was actually higher at inside linebacker (4.8%) than on the outside (4.3%), so he’s got potential wherever he lines up.”
Despite having some questions about this team, Connelly’s SP+ rankings, which are analytics-based rather than opinion-based, have the Tigers ranked ninth in the preseason projections. If that comes to pass, it could very well mean LSU’s first trip to the CFP under Kelly.
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