Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov prediction, pick: Is the grappling gap too large to

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ABC 7 main event between former bantamweight interim title challenger [autotag]Cory Sandhagen[/autotag] and undefeated [autotag]Umar Nurmagomedov[/autotag].

Cory Sandhagen UFC on ABC 7 preview

Cory Sandhagen

Staple info:

• Height: 5’11” Age: 32 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 70″

• Last fight: Decinsion win over Rob Font(Aug. 5, 2024)

• Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver, Co.)

• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ WKA world kickboxing champion

+ Amateur kickboxing accolades

+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt

+ 7 KO victories

+ 3 submission wins

+ 6 first-round finishes

+ Consistent pace and pressure

+ Excellent feints and footwork

^ Manages distance/draws out attacks

+ Variates shot selection

^ Punctuates well with bodywork

+ Hard leg kicks

+ Improved wrestling ability

+ Underrated scrambling ability

+ Solid transitional grappler

Umar Nurmagomedov UFC on ABC 7 preview

Staple info:

• Height: 5’8″ Age: 33 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 69″

• Last fight: Decision win over Bekzat Almakhan (March 2, 2024)

• Camp: Eagles MMA (Russia)

• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ Combat sambo world champion

+ Amateur MMA accolades

+ 2 KO victories

+ 7 submission wins

+ 5 first-round finishes

+ Aggressive pace and pressure

+ Deceptively accurate hands/shot selection

^ Usually works off single shots

+ Dynamic kicking ability

^ Competent from both stances

+ Explosive power-double takedown

+ Strong inside the clinch

+ Excellent wrestling ability

^ Quick reactive shots/chains attacks well

+ Superb transitional grappler

^ Loves creating back exposure

Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov point of interest: Shifty strikers

Mar 25, 2023; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Marlon Vera (red gloves) fights Cory Sandhagen (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Meullion-USA TODAY Sports

The main event in Abu Dhabi features a bantamweight showdown between two fighters who aren’t afraid to switch their stances.

Despite listing himself as an orthodox stance fighter, Nurmagomedov is a competent operator from either side.

Preferring to fight from the outside, Nurmagomedov commands a plethora of kicks out of both stances. From prodding sidekicks to more powerful Thai kicks, Nurmagomedov is good about playing with the looks and levels of his attacks.

Once Nurmagomedov establishes a threat, the 28-year-old is smart about building off it by either going up high with a question mark kick or attaching sneaky counter-balancing punches to the end of his attacks.

Nevertheless, Nurmagomedov is not beyond being countered for his shifting sensibilities and will need to be on his best behavior opposite Sandhagen.

Coming up through the kickboxing ranks in the quiet martial arts hotbed of Colorado, Sandhagen has clearly studied and absorbed a lot in what has been a fun career to watch thus far.

Utilizing his long and lean frame like second nature, Sandhagen is a rangy kickboxer who appears comfortable poking and prodding his opposition with accurate jabs and leg kicks from either stance. Shifting or drop-stepping at a moment’s notice, the 32-year-old talent can piece together flowing, varied offense off of whatever building materials are offered up to him.

Whether Sandhagen is bringing back Jose Aldo’s patented “Dutchie” combination or launching jumping switch-knees that give me flashbacks to Liu Kang’s bicycle kick, he certainly knows how to keep things spicy. And when Sandhagen is feeling in stride, it’s not uncommon to see the good samaritan show a sadistic smile after punctuating his presence with deep hooks or uppercuts to the body.

However, despite the multi-leveled attacks, Sandhagen is not exactly impervious from a defensive standpoint and will have to respect the potential level-changing counters coming his way.

Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Mar 5, 2022; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Brian Kelleher (red gloves) fights Umar Nurmagomedov (blue gloves) during UFC 272 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Considering the arguable crux of Nurmagomedov’s game, no one should be shocked if the Russian fighter looks to take this party to the floor.

A world champion in combat sambo, Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded grappler who is dangerous from multiple positions.

Training with his brother under the tutelage of his uncle, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, from a young age, Nurmagomedov possesses a lot of the translateable wrestling and sambo tactics you’d like to see from said background.

Whether he’s hitting reactive shots at the drop of a dime or entering in on a clinch, Nurmagomedov is good about chaining his attacks until getting his desired result. From shuck-bys to the back to balance de-basing leg play, Sandhagen will have a lot to worry about this Saturday.

However, in the American’s defense, Sandhagen has, in his own words, become a bit of a wrestler himself.

After dropping a somewhat controversial decision to T.J. Dillashaw in the summer of 2021, Sandhagen started to smartly round out his game and incorporate more takedown looks into his offense.

Although Sandhagen hasn’t exactly gotten any finishes through his newfound appreciation for wrestling, you can argue that these looks help overload opposition and plant potential level-changing seeds that the Colorado native can capitalize on down the road.

Defensively, Sandhagen hasn’t had to show much of his chops since losing to Dillashaw, given the stylistic draw of his opponents. And though Sandhagen still surrendered takedowns in said sample sizes, the majority of those numbers come from caught kicks that played no real effect on the fight.

Even when taken down, Sandhagen can be a tricky customer to deal with.

Slippery inside the scramble, Sandhagen has shown that he is not one to settle for bad positions, displaying a stoic composure that – outside of his fight with Aljamain Sterling – has surely assisted him in adverse spots before. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt in his own right, Sandhagen is far from a slouch when it comes to fighting for positions in the grappling department.

Even when Sandhagen is taken down, he is quick to attack, whether he is throwing armbars off his back to going for triangles from an inverted guard. However, despite showing some savvy in tough spots, Sandhagen still will need to be careful when returning to his feet given his propensity to tripod up and expose his back (I warned about this in my breakdowns before his fights with Sterling and T.J. Dillashaw).

As Nurmagomedov has already shown in the octagon, the Dagestani fighter is incredibly systematic and effective when it comes to breaking down his opponents from rear mount and riding positions.

From wrist feeds to wrist rides, Nurmagomedov demonstrates all the hallmarks of his teammates who came before him in regard to wearing down and finishing opposition.

Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov odds

The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the Russian fighter, listing Nurmagomedov -333 and Sandhagen +250 via FanDuel.

Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov prediction, pick

Mar 5, 2022; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Umar Nurmagomedov (blue gloves) celebrates after defeating Brian Kelleher (not pictured) during UFC 272 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Even though I don’t disagree with who is favored from a betting perspective, this fight could get even more interesting if these two are still tangling come the latter rounds.

Nurmagomedov appears to be a solid athlete with a strong motor attached to him, but we know that Sandhagen is a proven product when it comes to both his durability and staying power. Should he survive the early waves of offense from Nurmagomedov, then I’ll be curious to see how the Dagestani phenom swims in deep water.

That said, I ultimately believe that this is a stylistic matchup that bodes badly for Sandhagen.

Despite making marked improvements to his wrestling that he deserves credit for, Sandhagen still shows a strong propensity to show his back in scrambles – something that seems hardwired into his game at this point.

Although I’m curious to see what the presence of Sandhagen’s newfound coach, Trevor Wittman, will bring to the table, I’m not sure it will counteract the grappling dynamic between these two.

As a fan of Sandhagen’s, I definitely wouldn’t mind being wrong on this one. But as an analyst who is just trying to go off of what I see, I can’t help but side with Nurmagomedov to find a submission by the end of round 3.

Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov start time, where to watch

As the main event, Sandhagen and Nurmagomedov are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 5:30 p.m. ET (2:30 p.m. PT). The fight broadcasts live on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ABC 7.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov prediction, pick: Is the grappling gap too large to overcome?