With Summer League in the rear-view mirror, the boys of Bet the EDGE discussed what they witnessed and dove into the Rookie of the Year market.
When asked for his first impressions of the 2024 rookie class, Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) was honest and succinct.
“I watched enough not to believe in Alex Sarr winning Rookie of the Year.”
Like Croucher, Drew Dinsick(@whale_capper) was not overwhelmed by what he saw.
“The idea that many of these guys are going to move the needle in terms of wins right away is very, very unlikely to me. I think just in general, your Rookie of the Year winner is not going to be a guy that comes out of this year, and people are like, ‘Yeah, this guy is a future all NBA guy’…I was not necessarily impressed with what I saw broadly.”
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That said, the Chicago native and Lithuanian national team member, Matas Buzelis (+900) did impress Dinsick.
“His price (+900), I think is pretty advantageous, considering he’s going to have to contribute right away, and at least looks to have the three-point shot dialed in. He was very willing to take that shot, which is going to matter, and the opportunity in terms of usage in Chicago is all of a sudden, completely vacated for a player like him to be maybe even the second highest usage guy on that team now. I think that kind of really stood out to me as a guy that’s polished and ready now.”
Croucher agreed Buzelis has game and definite upside but wonders if his pathway to the ball let alone substantial minutes every game is not blocked by others on the roster.
“If I was going to bet someone like Buzelis. I’d prefer to wait a little bit and just make sure that Zach Levine isn’t on the team…I would prefer to wait and just make sure that Levine isn’t around. Then there will be a lot more shots to go around.”
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Before sharing his thoughts on rookies he likes, Croucher took the carving knife back out.
“I would kind of lower expectations, I think, with this market, because it’s such a mess. It’s almost easier to just go with a process of elimination in terms of at least picking out guys who aren’t appealing at price. It’s like Dalton Knecht is 9:1. I think Dalton Knecht is just going to be in the Taurean Prince role on that Lakers’ team. I don’t really see it there…We’ve had three looks at Alex Sarr (+1000), basically in the G-League, for Perth in the NBL, and this brief look in Summer League, and he’s been terrible in all three stops…he doesn’t have a refined offensive game at all…I don’t see it with Stephon Castle (+1100) who has no proven offensive game at all. Ron Holland (+1400) is in a mess of a situation. Donovan Clingan (+2000) is not going to start, I don’t think, and he’s not going to put up offensive stats.”
So, by process of elimination, who do the fellas like in the Futures Market?
“I was pretty, pretty darn impressed with Kel’el Ware (+4000). I honestly had completely missed who the Heat took…He can play and the Heat, for whatever it’s worth, have really, really done a nice job of evaluating young talent that they can plug and play pretty aggressively. Honestly, if you can at least have a big on the floor with BAM at times, maybe within the closing lineup, that could make a meaningful difference.”
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It is rare when Jay Croucher likes the favorite in a market before the season even begins, but the veteran handicapper like the big fella at the top of the board, Zach Edey (+600).
“Zach Edey just puts up stats and he just produces. There’s a very good chance he’s going to be the starting center on what could be the 4-seed in the West…Someone of his skillset and his size…I could absolutely see Edey being able to put up decent numbers and being a beloved NBA Twitter kind of cult phenomenon because of the screens that he sets for Ja and all that type of stuff, which was already gathering steam a bit in Summer League.”
Dinsick did not disagree with Jay’s case for Edey, but he is content to wait and hope for a better number.
“The price feels like it has shipped on that one now…I guess just kind of put it in the back of my head to see if, if someone starts hot, if someone is generating stats on what looks to be unsustainable shooting or just an unstable usage towards the first month of the season, then Edey would be a buy for me.”
Drew’s point is well-taken: The best prices sometimes happen once the season begins. Case in point is last year’s race. Wemby was a massive preseason favorite, but Chet Holmgren was the favorite after the first month as the Frenchman took a beat to find his footing.
In a year without a clear even couple of favorites, the Rookie of the Year market is worth your attention.
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