By this point in the college football offseason, you’ve heard most of the predictable takes.
Among them:
∎ Georgia and Texas will play in the SEC Championship game.
∎ Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss Rebels will make the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.
∎ Ohio State will emerge as the top national championship contender outside the SEC.
∎ The Big 12 and ACC will produce just one playoff qualifier each.
I sense I’m losing your attention. In these dog days of summer, you’re ready for a Busch Light in the swimming pool and a college football opinion you haven’t already heard a dozen times.
I’ll help you with those outside-the-box college football takes. The Buschy treats are on you.
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Here are eight SEC predictions that probably won’t happen — but totally could. If you drink a few more frosties while on your floaty, they might seem more plausible.
Texas A&M knocks Texas out of the playoff picture.
Texas’ roster is built for the playoff, but the Longhorns must play at Michigan, a neutral-site game against Oklahoma and host Georgia before November arrives. It’s plausible Texas will have multiple losses before its Thanksgiving week rivalry renewal against the Aggies. Imagine the scene at Kyle Field if the Aggies had a chance to spoil Texas’ playoff aspirations.
The media predicted Florida to finish 12th in the SEC. I don’t dispute that ranking, considering the Gators will face one of the nation’s toughest schedules, with 11 games against Power Four opponents. But Billy Napier has built his best Florida roster in three years, including some plug-and-play transfer wide receivers. Maybe, just maybe, his Gators are ready for this schedule.
HOT SEAT: Billy Napier to Sam Pittman, will these SEC coaches be fired? If so, when?
TOPPMEYER: Texas football’s ego will fit with SEC. Even Nick Saban thinks so
Only one SEC coach gets fired
Napier, Sam Pittman and Clark Lea perch on hot seats, while Shane Beamer inches closer to the hot-seat zip code. You could make an argument for all four to be fired come December. Or . . . Napier delivers his best season at Florida. Vanderbilt doesn’t care enough to fire Lea. Beamer wins just enough to earn a fifth season. Pittman . . . OK, fine, I struggle to make a realistic case for Pittman being retained.
The Iamaleava hype train jumped the rails this summer. Tennessee beat Iowa in a bowl game in Iamaleava’s first career start, and now some pundits predict the Vols’ former five-star recruit will be a Heisman Trophy finalist in his first season as the starter.
Iamaleava’s spotlight puts Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold, also a former five-star signee with one career start, in the shadows. Arnold, though, played more than Iamaleava did last season, and his predecessor, Dillon Gabriel, thrived at Oklahoma. The relative lack of hype and expectation for Arnold might work to his advantage.
Missouri falls back to the pack
The Tigers are coming off a storybook 11-win season. They beat Kansas State and Florida in at-the-wire thrillers before beating Ohio State, sans the Buckeyes’ starting quarterback, in a bowl game. A bulk of Missouri’s production is returning, and the Tigers drew a cushy schedule. They are considered a playoff contender. But what if Missouri had lost those close games against K-State and Florida? Now, factor in the departure of Cody Schrader, the SEC’s leading rusher. Forgiving though the schedule is, would 8-4 really be surprising?
Kalen DeBoer wins SEC coach of the year
Alabama faces more questions than usual, particularly about its secondary. And Nick Saban’s retirement adds an element of mystery. Overall, though, this remains a loaded roster headlined by talented quarterback Jalen Milroe. And DeBoer is a cool customer. Proven, too. Alabama’s schedule presents a challenge, but it doubles as opportunity for DeBoer to build an award-winning résumé.
Brian Kelly delivers his best LSU season yet
LSU lurks quietly at the edge of the SEC’s top tier, but the ingredients are in place for this to be Kelly’s best team. Yes, LSU’s offense might regress a notch after the loss of Jayden Daniels and some top receivers, but Daniels’ heir, Garrett Nussmeier, is plenty talented. An improved defense could more than make up for a little offensive dip. Also consider, three of LSU’s toughest SEC games are at home. LSU’s 10 wins the past two seasons didn’t hit Kelly’s ceiling.
Vanderbilt wins three games
I saved my boldest prediction for last. The Commodores limp into the season under the burden of a 10-game losing streak, but an influx of starting-caliber transfers could catapult Vanderbilt to victories against Alcorn State, Georgia State and Ball State.
If you don’t believe that, you might need another cold one for your next lap around the pool.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
Also, check out his podcast, SEC Football Unfiltered, and newsletter, SEC Football Unfiltered. Subscribe to read all of his columns.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: 8 SEC football predictions that likely won’t happen (but totally could)
The Oklahoman
