UFC Vegas 106 Best Betting Props, Parlays & Picks

UFC Vegas 106 happens this weekend (Sat., May 17, 2025) at the familiar UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. This is the first time UFC has been back to the APEX in more than five weeks. The ESPN+-streamed main event has Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales in the main event, with the undefeated Morales looking to climb the ladder toward new Welterweight champion, Jack Della Maddalena.

The co-main event is Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato. Bellato is coming off a draw with Jim Crute, while Craig is coming off a snore with Bo Nickal.

Rounding out the main card is Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos, Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Dustin Stoltzfus and Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa.

The “Prelims” undercard is headlined by Gabe Green vs. Matheus Camilo. That portion of the event also has Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises and Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro.

Let’s checkout the money lines on “Burns vs. Morales” and all the other bouts on the card …

UFC Vegas 106 Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Gilbert Burns (+500) vs. Michael Morales (-850)

Burns is now firmly in the gatekeeper chapter of his career. And he’s a massive underdog against the rising, and undefeated, Morales.

Burns is on a three-fight losing skid against a Murderer’s Row of Welterweights. In those fights, he dropped decisions to Sean Brady and Belal Muhammad and was finished by new champ Jack Della Maddalena (see that here).

His only wins since he was finished by Kamaru Usman in a 2021 title fight (see that here) are against Stephen Thompson, Neil Magny and Jorge Masvidal.

Morales, for comparison, beat-up Neil Magny last August, finishing him by first round ground-and-pound. Before that he took a unanimous decision over Jake Matthews.

This fight is a massive step up for the 25-year-old.

Morales striking stats read as elite, though they have been earned against less than elite opposition. He lands 5.99 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.41 for a great significant striking differential of 2.58. That leads the Welterweight division. Morales is also second in the division, behind Carlos Prates, for knockdowns per 15 minutes with 1.2. Only Morales, Prates and Della Maddalena average over one knockdown per 15 minutes.

Burns didn’t come up as a striker, but he’s proved himself to be very tough on the feet (and tough to put away).

I don’t think this fight is as lopsided as the odds suggest. There really is a massive gulf in quality between Magny and Burns. And Morales is very young and he might stumble in his first main event.

This could end up like what happened when Yair Rodriguez rose through the ranks and was then battered by Frankie Edgar.

Morales size advantage over Burns is what’s making me second guess the underdog, though. Morales will have a massive eight inch reach advantage in this fight.

If Morales’ striking is as good as his numbers suggest he is (despite not facing anyone who is exceptional) then that reach should terrorize Burns.

The oddsmakers are showing respect for Burns’ durability and veteran savvy with the round total. That’s set at 3.5. The over is -105 and the under is -125 right now. That’s very hard to pick. If they had disrespected Burns with a 1.5 or even a 2.5 total I would have been all in on the over. 3.5 is right on the line, though. I think it probably goes over, but I won’t bet that because there is a chance that Morales is special and he runs through the 38 year-old Burns.

DraftKings have a really interesting same game parlay for this fight. They are offering the Morales moneyline, KO/TKO/DQ method of victory and under 4.5 rounds for -130.

That’s tempting, but I’m going to go for a more basic parlay for my best bet. I like Morales to win and Over 2.5 rounds. This is my believing that Morales is very good, but also that Burns is still very tough.

Best bet: Michael Morales to Win and Over 2.5 rounds (-145)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Rodolfo Bellato (-375) vs. Paul Craig (+400)

Just in case you forgot we were in the UFC APEX we have this as the co-main event.

Bellato fought to a draw with Jimmy Crute at UFC 312 in February. The draw came after Bellato was almost finished in the first round, giving Crute the 10-8 round before Bellato regrouped and won the second and third rounds (mostly due to his leg kicks).

Prior to that fight, Bellato won his UFC debut with a ground-and-pound win over Ihor Potieria (see it here).

Craig will make his 20th walk to the Octagon this weekend. He heads into Saturday with a 9-9-1 UFC record. He’s coming off a very boring decision loss to Bo Nickal. Before that, he was battered by Caio Borralho and submitted by Brendan Allen (see it here).

Initially, it felt like Craig was here for a fun time, not a long time. But, time has now dragged on and the 37-year-old’s lack of striking remains a serious liability in any fight he could take in the division.

Craig is a massive underdog against Bellato. That’s because of Bellato’s punching power and the long-standing belief that Craig will go down if someone can catch him on the chin.

The round total of 1.5 also reflects that with the under currently available at -135.

Bellato via (technical) knockout also has very short odds at -185.

I don’t see a reason to disagree with Vegas on all this. To try and get a little value, though, I’ll take Bellato to get that finish in the first round. He started slow against Crute and was nearly finished, so he should be motivated to come out quick for this one. I’ll take Bellato to win in the first, regardless of method, since I think a club-and-sub might be on the card.

Best bet: Rodolfo Bellato to win in Round 1 (+140)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Sodiq Yusuff (+105) vs. Mairon Santos (-125)

Yusuff has been on the sidelines for a year. The last time we saw him we was stopped by Diego Lopes (see it here). And before that he lost a decision to Edson Barbosa in a “Fight of the Night.” Yusuff is now 6-3 in UFC with that third loss being a decision to Arnold Allen. He’s not beaten anyone who would ever make it close to the Top 15 at Featherweight.

Santos benefitted from some awful scorecards to “win” a split decision over Francis Marshall in March. That was his first fight since winning TUF with a technical knockout over Kaan Ofli. He’s 15-1 on his career with his lone loss being to the recently-retired Dan Argueta.

I guess UFC wants to see how good Santos is (and whether Yusuff is someone they want to keep around).

This is likely to be a pure kickboxing match with neither man showing much interest in wrestling in their UFC careers to date.

Santos looked timid in his win over Marshall. His knockout of Ofli might say more about Ofli than him.

I think the veteran is probably skilled enough to avoid the big counter Santos used to end Ofli. I’m not anticipating a very entertaining fight, though.

Best bet: Sodiq Yussuf moneyline (+105)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Dustin Stoltzfus (+320) vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (-320)

Ruziboev was given a gimme in his UFC Middleweight debut in February. He breezed past regional-level fighter Eric McConico with a second round knockout. That was his first fight since losing a decision to Joaquin Buckley.

Stoltzfus, meanwhile, KO’d Marc-Andre Barriault in November to earn a Performance of the Night (see it here). He’s now 3-5 in UFC. Four of his losses have been because of stoppages, including a spinning elbow from Brunno Ferreira (see it here) and a front kick from Abus Magomedov (see it here).

Stoltzfus has had a tough schedule in UFC and that hasn’t changed with this match-up. Ruziboev is a giant at Middleweight, which makes the fact he fought at Welterweight even more bizarre. Ruziboev also has a lot of power in his striking (he knocked out Sedriques Dumas and Brunno Ferreira).

There is a path to victory for Stoltzfus, though. Buckley was able to take the lanky Ruziboev down four times on four attempts. Stoltzfus lands 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and is okay when it comes to takedown accuracy (41 percent). I worry he might take too many shots on the way in against Ruziboev, though (maybe a knee up the middle).

The round total is set at 1.5 rounds, with Vegas thinking Ruziboev is going to be able to get Stoltzfus out of there quickly. I disagree with that, though.

I think Stoltzfus will start well in this fight, but Ruziboev is going to catch him too many times. I can see those strikes adding up and leading to yet another stoppage loss for Stoltzfus. I just don’t think it happens in less than 1.5 rounds.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-110)

Photo credit should read Ismael Rosas/ Pixelnews/Future Publishing via Getty Images

Julian Erosa (+155) vs. Melquizael Costa (-185)

Now, this is a fun fight.

Costa seems to have figured it out since his technical knockout loss to Steve Garcia (see it here) in 2023. He’s won three straight since then, including a submission over Andre Fili. Last time out he looked well rounded and tactically sound against Christian Rodriguez for the unanimous decision win.

We saw Erosa about a month ago when he torched Darren Elkins for a first round technical knockout (see it here). Before that, Erosa submitted Christian Rodriguez (see it here) and Ricardo Ramos (see it here).

This is great match-making with two guys who are both on the rise, albeit at different stages of their careers.

Both these guys are wizards on the ground, so we could be in for…