STILLWATER — While commissioner Brett Yormark continually tells the world that the Big 12 is college football’s deepest conference, a more accurate explanation would be to call it the country’s most competitive one.
The difference between the team that finishes first in the league and the one that finishes eighth will be small, and trying to predict which teams will fall between first and eighth is a hopeless task.
Oklahoma State has been predicted as a top contender for the Big 12 title, a middle-of-the-pack finisher, and everything in between.
Last year, the Big 12 earned the nickname “The No Bad Teams League,” and this year could be much of the same, only with more teams.
Because of the conference’s competitive depth, every game is going to carry a more significant level of importance for a team like OSU, which has its sights set on a third championship game appearance in a four-year span.
But which ones will be the most important for the Cowboys? Let’s take a stab at figuring that out.
Here’s a look at the OSU schedule, ranking the games in order of importance:
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1. at Kansas State (Sept. 28)
The take: The Pokes’ last trip to Manhattan, Kansas, was an epic disaster — the 48-0 loss in 2022 that began the violent collapse of a top-10 team. This game comes two weeks into Big 12 play, following a home game against Utah, which is picked by many as the favorite for the league title. Kansas State is right there, too, so this is a chance for OSU to steal a road win that will likely have a heavy impact on the race for the championship game.
2. vs. West Virginia (Oct. 5)
The take: More important than the Big 12 opener vs. Utah? Yes. The most important two-game stretch of the season is the Utah-Kansas State back-to-back. But the West Virginia game becomes highly important because of OSU’s need to turn the page to the rest of the schedule. A loss to Utah wouldn’t cripple the season, only shrink the margin for error. But this game will set the tone for the meat of the schedule where OSU needs to flex its muscle to prove its a legit contender for a return trip to JerryWorld.
3. vs. Utah (Sept. 21)
The take: We’ve discussed what a loss here would do, but a win would be hugely valuable in November, should tiebreakers be needed to decide who will play for the Big 12 title. And just like last year, it seems highly likely that the league’s convoluted tiebreaker system will be needed. Beyond this season, it feels like OSU-Utah could be a significantly meaningful game on an annual basis, so stepping to the forefront of that matchup is important for the Pokes.
4. at TCU (Nov. 9)
The take: Another place where OSU has had difficulty winning in recent years and the need to change the trend elevates the importance of this game. In its last three trips to Fort Worth, OSU has had two dismal performances and a blown lead. This game comes at the end of a four-week stretch that includes three road games, so the Cowboys could be road weary by the time they get here.
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5. vs. South Dakota State (1 p.m., Aug. 31, ESPN+)
The take: South Dakota State will arrive in Stillwater with a 29-game winning streak and full belief it can become 30. Sleep on the Jackrabbits and suffer the consequences. This could turn out to be the most challenging game of the non-conference schedule, so the Cowboys need to be on point right out the gate.
6. at BYU (9:15 p.m., Oct. 19, ESPN)
The take: The Cougars took OSU to overtime in Stillwater last year, and BYU is a program looking to establish its place in the Big 12. A Friday night game in Provo should generate a wild atmosphere, and in case you’re curious, OSU’s last weeknight conference road game was in November 2011 — at Iowa State.
7. vs. Texas Tech (Nov. 23)
The take: The Red Raiders feel like they could be a team to make a significant push toward contender status this year. OSU gets them at Boone Pickens Stadium near the end of the race for the Big 12 title game. And it’ll be the final home game for several key Cowboys, including quarterback Alan Bowman — who will be excited about the opportunity to post big numbers against his former team.
8. at Colorado (11 a.m., Nov. 29, ABC)
The take: Colorado could put things together in Deion Sanders’ second year as coach, which would elevate the importance of this game. But for now, the Buffs remain a wild card, and there’s just as good a chance their season has collapsed by Thanksgiving weekend. Either way, the excitement around the Mike Gundy vs. Coach Prime matchup in a national broadcast on Black Friday will bring plenty of juice.
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9. at Baylor (Oct. 26)
The take: It’s hard to know what to expect from Baylor, with coach Dave Aranda being perhaps the Big 12 coach with the hottest seat entering the season. He has a new offensive coordinator, Oklahoma native and former OSU graduate…
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