The closer Alabama football season gets, the more I’m inching up the bar of expectations for Kalen DeBoer’s debut. In late January, I pegged 8-4 or 9-3 as a realistic start. Now, at least 10 victories and a playoff appearance seem a more appropriate target.
Maybe it’s a smidge unfair to alter the mark, but I can’t help myself after the way DeBoer deftly handled the offseason. He quelled a short-term rash of transfers, clawed back some talent out of the portal, and reinstated calm confidence at Alabama after Nick Saban suddenly retired and turned the program on its head.
It’s not just DeBoer’s confidence that makes me elevate my projection for Alabama. I’ve seen plenty of confident men go down in flames. I saw it at Auburn just two years ago.
It’s DeBoer’s composure that has me feeling more bullish about the Tide than I did in January.
Those words sound similar, but they’re different qualities.
You can be confident and incomposed. You can be composed and unconfident.
DeBoer is confident – and he’s composed. That’s a good combination for a guy who accepted the challenge of replacing the irreplaceable.
DeBoer can handle the proverbial heat – and the literal heat.
“Welcome to the South, right?” DeBoer told reporters Wednesday after Alabama concluded its first preseason practice on a 92-degree morning. “Practice is a little bit warmer.”
Expectations are a little greater, too.
DeBoer knows what he signed up for, and he’s not taking down the bar.
“This program has that expectation of being championship caliber and being involved in the playoff every single year,” DeBoer told me in June, when I asked about Alabama’s playoff possibilities.
Let’s unpack whether that’s realistic.
∎ DeBoer’s got the quarterback to make it happen. Jalen Milroe showed impressive growth throughout last season, and he hasn’t hit his ceiling. He’s equipped to be one of the nation’s best quarterbacks.
∎ This veteran offensive line should be an improvement over last season. DeBoer did well to get left tackle Kadyn Proctor back onto the roster after Proctor initially transferred to Iowa following Saban’s retirement.
∎ I’ve still got questions about Alabama’s mostly unproven skill-position players, but there’s talent there. Jam Miller and Justice Haynes could become a better 1-2 backfield punch than Alabama had last season. Transfer wideout Germie Bernard provides dependability, and freshman receiver Ryan Williams looks the part of his five-star billing.
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Alabama’s offense is in good hands. That leaves Alabama’s schedule and its defense.
This is Alabama’s toughest schedule in a few seasons.
Road games against Wisconsin, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma and home dates with Georgia and Missouri stack up as the toughest collection of opponents DeBoer will have ever faced. Still, expect Alabama to be the oddsmaker favorite in at least 10 games.
I’m not sold on the defense, though. No amount of DeBoer’s composure will bring Caleb Downs back from Ohio State or Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold back from the NFL.
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Alabama’s pass rush is not as fearsome, either, as it’s been in the past.
That could leave Alabama’s secondary exposed. It can’t afford that. Don’t take it from me. Take it from Saban.
“I just think the question marks in the secondary, until those get resolved, it’s hard to sort of jump on that bandwagon,” Saban said on TV during SEC media days.
Too late. I’m already aboard.
DeBoer’s combination of confidence plus composure convinced me that this will be a smooth enough ride.
Stay composed throughout this debut season, but go ahead and raise the bar.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
Also, check out his podcast, SEC Football Unfiltered, and newsletter, SEC Football Unfiltered. Subscribe to read all of his columns.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama football: Why believe in Kalen DeBoer? His composure
The Tuscaloosa News
