2025 NBA Draft: Will Spurs, 76ers trade down from top 3? It’s a rare move, but here’s why it

Trading down from a top-3 pick is a rare move in the NBA draft. You almost never see it. Why would you? Rookie-scale contracts are the best deals in basketball, and the higher a team picks, the better its odds historically of landing a franchise changer. Most GMs would rather get fired swinging for a future All-Star than risk sliding down the board and watching the guy they passed on torch them for the next decade.

McHale and Parish for Joe Barry Carroll. Webber for Penny. Fultz for Tatum. Luka for Trae. These are the kinds of trades that have shaped eras.

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Since 1980, only 10 teams with a top-3 pick have traded down and stayed within the lottery. That’s 10 out of 135 chances over 45 drafts. Here they are:

1980: Celtics traded No. 1 to Warriors

• Warriors picked Joe Barry Carroll

• Celtics moved down to third, drafted Kevin McHale, and also got Robert Parish in one of the biggest heists in NBA history

1988: Sixers traded No. 3 to Clippers

• Clippers picked Charles Smith

• Sixers moved to sixth, took Hersey Hawkins, plus a 1989 first (Kenny Payne); Payne didn’t pan out, but Hawkins became an All-Star in Philly

1993: Magic traded No. 1 to Warriors

• Warriors took Chris Webber, who left Golden State after one season

• Magic dropped to third, took Penny Hardaway and three future firsts, which included a pick that eventually became Vince Carter (though Orlando had already traded it away); still, Orlando won the trade considering the playoff success of Shaq and Penn

1997: Sixers traded No. 2 to Nets

• Nets picked Keith Van Horn, and also acquired Lucious Harris, giving them two key pieces that helped push the Nets to the Finals a few years later

• Sixers got the seventh pick, who ended up being Tim Thomas, plus the 21st pick (Anthony Parker), and a journeyman scorer (Jim Jackson)

2004: Clippers traded No. 2 to Bobcats

• Bobcats picked Emeka Okafor, who gave them the clear win in the deal

• Clips dropped to fourth (Shaun Livingston) and got the 33rd pick (Lionel Chalmers)

2005: Blazers traded No. 3 to Jazz

• Jazz took Deron Williams, landing their point guard of the decade

• Blazers moved to sixth (Martell Webster) and got the 27th pick (Linas Kleiza) and a future first (Joel Freeland)

2006: Bulls traded No. 2 to Blazers

• Blazers took LaMarcus Aldridge, winning the deal in a landslide

• Bulls moved to fourth and took Tyrus Thomas, plus got Viktor Khryapa, a young player at the time

2008: Wolves traded No. 3 to Grizzlies

• Wolves moved to fifth and took Kevin Love, and got a quality role player (Mike Miller) in a huge win for the franchise

2017: Celtics traded No. 1 to Sixers

• Sixers took Markelle Fultz, one of the biggest busts in recent league history

• Celtics moved to No. 3 (Jayson Tatum) and added a 2019 first (Romeo Langford) in what was a Danny Ainge masterclass

2018: Hawks traded No. 3 to Mavs

• Mavs took Luka Dončić, the clear best player in the trade

• Hawks moved to fifth and took Trae Young and 2019 first (Cam Reddish)

History tells us: half the time it works, half the time it blows up a franchise. And we haven’t seen a single trade down in the top 3 this decade. That might finally change in 2025.

Will Spurs, Sixers trade down?

The Spurs hold the second pick. The Sixers are third. San Antonio and Philly aren’t shopping their picks per se, but they’re listening. League sources say New Orleans (seventh) and Brooklyn (eighth) have reached out about moving up. The teams drafting fourth through sixth — the Hornets, Jazz, and Wizards, respectively — all have three top-45 picks and a stash of future ammo. They’re lurking too. Even the Sixers reportedly inquired with the Spurs about swapping spots.

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There’s so much gossip around these picks because the two players projected to go after Cooper Flagg don’t cleanly fit the Spurs or Sixers in the second and third spots.

One year ago, the Spurs drafted guard Stephon Castle in the lottery. Months later, they traded for point guard De’Aaron Fox. And now they’re in position to pick Rutgers point guard Dylan Harper, a 6-foot-5 freight train with a shaky jumper. That’s three guards, none of whom are knockdown shooters, surrounding a generational 7-foot-5 center in Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs likely wouldn’t have traded for Fox if they knew they’d end up with Harper. Now they could have three non-shooting guards and Wemby wondering if San Antonio doesn’t believe in space.

Philadelphia’s problem is different. Harper’s teammate Ace Bailey is a high-variance bet as a 6-8 shot-maker with tantalizing upside but little discipline, shaky playmaking, and questionable defense. The Sixers aren’t in the business of developmental projects when they’re trying to win with Joel Embiid right now and invest in a future that can survive without him. Bailey checks the future box, but not the present day box.

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Harper actually fits better in Philly than in San Antonio, since Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain provide elite shooting in the backcourt, plus other role players can create enough space that mitigates the need for Harper to ever become a knockdown guy. And Bailey makes more sense for a team like Brooklyn or New Orleans — or any franchise that can afford to roll the dice on upside.

So the question becomes: If San Antonio and Philly…